INDIA'S FORGOTTEN WAR – blogging naxalism.

Posts Tagged ‘Analysis

Operation Green Hunt

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Now that the beginnings of Operation Green Hunt, the central government’s anti-Naxalite offensive, have unfolded, a lot remains unclear. According to government spokespeople, it will not take the form of massive assault against the Maoist zones:

I wouldn’t like to call it a war. A war is fought against the enemy, not against our own people.

— Vijay Raman, Special Director General, Central Reserve Police Force and commandant of joint Centre-states anti-Naxalite operation Green Hunt.

Rather Green Hunt will, according to Raman:

facilitate, assist and secure the process of development that the government will hasten in these areas than go bang-bang hitting the Naxal targets. It can take any number of years. All I would say is, it would be a very calculated security exercise with human face,

So, what we have is a long-term and sustained counter-insurgency campaign that, in some ways, mirrors the US project in Afghanistan. Fair enough. I have often argued that the Naxalites are not primarily a police ‘problem’. They are the consequence of a complex array of failures in the contemporary Indian state, ranging from weak institutions to persistent social and exploitation of marginal groups in the deprived parts of the country.

In order for this strategy to work, however, the Indian government must improve the training, pay and equipment of the para-military police. Steps have been taken, including the establishment of a jungle warfare centre. However, this is not nearly enough. Reports continue to come in from parts of Chhattisgarh of troops selling their weapons to the rebels in exchange for food. Time and again, the CRPF has also showed that it is being out-fought, out-thought and out-gunned by the Naxalites. This needs to change.

The Indian government is currently testing the deployment of drones in the Naxalite areas. Use of advanced technology will only be effective in conjunction with a concerted, long-term effort to improve the capabilities of the para-police. Drones are no replacement for solid, human intelligence gathered by disciplined and motivated forces who have developed the trust of local communities.

As I said, I’m happy to see that the Indian government has not chosen to undertake a spectacular, if fruitless, massive counterstrike into the Naxal heartland. It remains to be seen, however, if the more complex strategy chosen can be undertaken effectively.

Security Assessment- Chhattisgarh

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A good assessment of the current security environment in Chhattisgarh, courtesy of the South Asian Terrorism Portal. As always, a must read.

India's Red Army

Preparing for the Offensive- Lessons from the LTTE

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According to the Indo-Asian News Service, the CPI (Maoist) has circulated an internal document entitled, “Post-Election Situation, Our Tasks’. The document seeks to apply the lessons learned from the recent defeat of the LTTE in Sri Lanka:

The document makes several references to the LTTE, which the Sri Lankan military crushed in May, ending one of the world’s longest running insurgencies.

It says that ‘the setback suffered by the LTTE has a negative effect on the revolutionary movement in India as well as South Asia and the world at large’.

‘The experience of LTTE’s setback in Sri Lanka is very important to study and take lessons. The mistake of the LTTE lay in its lack of study of the changes in enemy tactics and capabilities and an underestimation of the enemy along with an overestimation of its own forces and capabilities.’

Perhaps, more interestingly, the circular sets out a general strategic plan to counter the government’s expected anti-Naxal offensive:

Under the sub-heading ‘Immediate Tasks’, it says the entire party and its armed wings need to carry out ‘tactical counter-offensives and various forms of armed resistance and inflict severe losses to the enemy forces’.

‘Attacks should be organised with meticulous planning against the state’s khaki and olive-clad terrorist forces, SPOs (Special Police Officers), police informants, and other counter-revolutionaries and enemies of the people.

‘These attacks should be carried out in close coordination with, and in support of, the armed resistance of the masses; these should be linked to the seizure of political power and establishment of base areas; it is the combined attacks by all the three wings … and the people at large that can ensure the defeat of the enemy offensive.

‘In order to defeat the new offensive by the enemy and to protect the gains of People’s War, it is very essential to rouse the masses throughout the country (to) stand up in support of the struggles in Dandakaranya, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Karnataka and other places’.

I think that there can be two broad interpretations of the document: 1) The Maoists are taking prudent steps to blunt the effects of the upcoming post-Monsoon government offensive, or 2) the Maoists are nervous that their Bastar national base (if it even exists) is at risk of being destroyed (with the concomitant risk of the government killing or capturing key leaders of the Party).

The doccument is either a sign of strategic and tactical skill or Naxalite nervousness. Maybe both.

PWG_ABP

September/Post-Monsoon Offensive Watch

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It seems increasingly likely that the Singh government will launch a major anti-Naxalite offensive sometime after 1 September. I was contacted recently by someone working closely with the state police in Chhattisgarh who has said as much (trying to find out more). There have also been a number of stories in the Indian media lending credibility to this claim, including the recent re-deployment of 5,000 Border Security Personnel into India’s eastern states.

red indiaAdditionally, the Maoists, in anticipation of a major counter-insurgency campaign by the Centre, are allegedly preparing themselves by intensifying their operations. The CPI (Maoist) Politburo has, according to Rediff, issued a circular:

The politburo circular also has enough indications that the Maoist strategy to counter the proposed government offensive is to step up violence in their strongholds through what the Maoists call a Tactical Counter Offensive Campaign.

“We have to further aggravate the situation and create more difficulties to the enemy forces by expanding our guerrilla war to new areas on the one hand and intensifying the mass resistance in the existing areas so as to disperse the enemy forces over a sufficiently wider area;

“Hence the foremost task in every state is to intensify the war in their respective states while in areas of intense enemy repression there is need to expand the area of struggle by proper planning by the concerned committees; tactical counter-offensives should be stepped up and also taken up in new areas so as to divert a section of the enemy forces from attacking our guerrilla bases and organs of political power,” the politburo said.

Now would be a logical time for Delhi to try and push the Maoists out of their jungle strongholds. The Singh government has just waged a successful re-election campaign and is politically safe in case something goes terribly wrong. Additionally, India’s Forgotten War is no longer so forgotten. It has reached a tipping point. The Maoists are a growing threat to the state which can and is no longer being ignored. The Singh government knows that it must tackle them before the Maoists are in a position to seriously resist a concerted government counter-insurgency campaign. Now is the time for any rational government to move to prevent risking intolerable political and security costs.

The question is, how effective will a government strike on the heart of Naxal country be? More to come.

CPI (Maoist) Documents

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Bannedthought.net has a great collection of interviews and documents from the CPI (Maoist) here. Well done! The Naxalites are a fairly shadowy organisation and tracking documents and/or statements from the Party itself is a bit of challenge. This site is a solid source of primary information and I would recommend it to anyone who wants to learn more about the Naxalites world-view and their tactical/strategic analysis.

Written by Michael

July 31, 2009 at 4:07 pm

War of Words in West Bengal

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The virtual civil war in West Bengal continues apace. While anti-Naxal operations in Lalgarh are ongoing,  both the opposition Trinamool Congress and the governing Communist Party of India (Marxist) continue to accuse each other of orchestrating a campaign of murder against their respective cadres.

4da5c864-37f5-11de-b074-000b5dabf636What is clear in the war of words is that West Bengal’s nearly three decade long rural political structure is in the process of distintegration. Both the Trinamool Congress and the Maoists stand to gain from the CPI(M)’s weakening rural electoral machine. Trinamool is envisioning itself as head of government and the Naxalites see an opportunity to re-establish themselves in the state which gave them birth. What if the Left Front does fall and Trinamool takes its place in Calcutta? Would there be a government in West Bengal which owed the Naxalites a tremendous debt? Or would any temporary tactical alliance be jettisoned by a new government? In either scenario the Naxalites would emerge victorious. They would have emerged in West Bengal with a stronger presence and reach than they have enjoyed since the early 1970s. They will be in a position to either directly pressure the state government or threaten it militarily.

The Trinamool Congress, never consistent ideologically, is playing a dangerous game. The CPI(M), on the other hand, bears most of the blame for the current situation. They are a party which has failed to adequately realise their developmental vision. They have deployed their powerful party machinery in an arbitrary and often violent way, alienating precisely those people who make up their natural constituency.

Image: Rediff

Sudeep Chakravarti on Maoism in India

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Here’s a great clip from Sudeep Chakravati, journalist and author of Red Sun: Travels in Naxalite Country, speaking at the Crossword Book Awards 2008 (sorry… the video’s hosted at Rediff and I can’t seem to embed it).

Chakravati is one of the most astute (and accessible) observers of Naxalism in India. He has an admirable ability to humanise the story without obscuring the larger issues.  If there were more people of his calibre tracking the insurgency, perhaps the debate would be less polarised between those who see the Naxalites as mere terrorists and those who see them as virtuous revolutionaries. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.