Return to Blogging

As some of you may have noticed, it’s been some time since I’ve posted anything to India’s Forgotten War. I started my PhD this fall and as someone who’s been out of school for  number of years the adjustment process has taken up all of my time and energy. I’ve managed to settle into a routine and re-awakened long dormant skills such as reading ridiculous quantities of often dry, and always dense, academic texts in hyper-speed.

Events have been moving quickly on the Naxalite front. The situation in West Bengal continues to be highly unstable, the first battles of the government’s offensive in the forests of Central India have been fought and peace talks between Delhi and the CPI (Maoist) seem to be a slim possibility. In addition to this, the Maoists in Nepal have embarked on another push this week to try and topple the government in Kathmandu.

All of this adds up to a hell of a lot to write about. I hope that those who may have stopped following my blog will come back and I hope to continue to build my readers by continuing to deliver timely and non-partisan news and analysis on a story that is increasingly garnering both domestic and international media attention.

Back After a Hiatus

Well, an unplanned hiatus. I’ve been sidetracked by a few other things in my life during the past few weeks and haven’t had a chance to post anything. Now I have a riduclous amount of items in my news reader and am sorting through them. Wish me luck.

After the Hiatus

I haven’t updated IFW in a few weeks. My daughter, whom I don’t see nearly enough, was visiting and she take precedence over eveything else.

There’s been quite a lot happening in my absence and I hope that you’ll check back frequently as will be updating a couple of times a day. I’ll recap some of the most recent news on the Naxalites and will be covering Nepal, where the political situation seems to be deteriorating by the hour. I will also share my thoughts on a few quantitative studies I’ve recently read on the Maoists insurgency. And, of course, I’ll write on anything of interest which might pop up. Cheers!

Updates Soon

I haven’t had a chance to update in the past day as I’ve been busy with some other work. Please check back tomorrow as I’ll have updates on Nepal and the Phase III of the Indian election.

Post-Election Decompression

No updates for the next day or two. I’m taking a break after a marathon session.

I started India’s Forgotten War earlier this week as my first foray into blogging (about four years two late!). I’m happy with the results so far. Considering how much of a minority interest Naxalism is, it’s amazing  how many hits I’ve had. I hope you come by often to see the blog develop and grow. Thanks everyone!

Indian Election Phase II

UPDATE: Polling in Bihar “peaceful“.

UPDATE: Various skirmishes in polling areas. The Times of India reports that there have been numerous gunbattles between Maoists and the police and bomb attacks on election officials in Jhrakhand. Also some reports of violence in Orissa and Andhra.

UPDATE: A Naxalite landmine has been defused by police. The mine was buried under an electoral boycott banner at a polling station in Madhya Pradesh.

UPDATE: The chart disaggregates rural/urban turnout in major states during the last election. Unfortunately, most of the heavily Naxal affected states aren’t included. I’m curious to see what impact, if any, their call for an electoral boycott has had on rural voters. A decline in the percentages would underscore the insurgents strength. If voting turnout isn’t significantly affected, it would suggest that the the string of high profile attacks amount to little more than a bit of good media PR.

Turnout: Urban versus rural constituencies in 2004
Major State	Turnout in urban constituencies (%)	Turnout in rural constituencies (%)	Turnout in entire state (%)
Andhra Pradesh	60	72	69.9
Bihar	55	58	57.9
Gujarat	38	48	45.2
Karnataka	54	67	64.9
Kerala	68	72	71.5
Madhya Pradesh	48	47	48.1
Maharashtra	46	56	54.4
Orissa	69	67	66
Rajasthan	50	48	49.9
Uttar Pradesh	42	48	48.2
Tamil Nadu	54	63	60.8
West Bengal	75	79	78.2

Year of Lok Sabha Election	Turnout in Urban constituencies (%)	Turnout in Rural constituencies (%)	All India turnout (%)
2004	54	59	58
Source: www.pib.nic.in

Update: The BBC has a great interactive map of the election. What’s interesting is that half of Andhra Pradesh is voting today. Until a few years ago the state was the heart of Naxalite activity in the country. I haven’t heard of a single attack anywhere in the state since the beginning of the election. The hub of the so-called ‘red corrider’ has shifted to Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. Elements of the Andhra government’s approach to counter-insurgency (raising and effectively training the anti-Naxalite Greyhound police force coupled with strong financial incentives for fighters wishing to quite the movement) sh0uld be emulated. I was in Warangal district (Andhra Pradesh) in 2008 and met with the district police commander. She had nothing but contempt for the Salwa Judum and Chhattisgarh’s ‘civilian’ militias.

Update: First reports of Maoist disruptions. Ongoing gun battle after a CRPF camp was attacked in West Singhbum, Jharkhand. Train station bombed in Palamau, also in Jharkhand.

Polls in phase 2 of the Indian election opened 30 minutes ago.

I found a UPI story on yesterday’s train hijacking claiming that the Naxalites were, “protest[ing] over some former Maoists participating in India’s general elections”.

Interesting. I interpreted the highjacking as a show of strength. Maybe it wasn’t. Also wondering who or what faction has jumped into legal politics. UPDATE: Could it be the 3000 ex-Maoists who joined the Prajarajyam Party (PP) in February? The hijack took place in Jhrkhand and the PP is based in Andhra. Maybe not?

Nepal Crisis and the Indian Election

An interesting piece from Sudeshna Sarkar on the crisis in Nepal. It’s a believable angle that underscores how intertwined the two countries are.  Kathmandu’s relationship with Delhi is of paramount importance to the stability of Nepal.

India should think very carefully before it weakens (or even topples) the Maoist government. A resumption of civil war would be strongly felt in the Naxalite heartland of eastern and central India.

`Indian polls may be behind Nepal’s army chief sacking drama’

April 22nd, 2009 – 2:04 pm ICT by IANS

By Sudeshna Sarkar
Kathmandu, April 22 (IANS) As Nepal’s first Maoist government faces the possibility of collapse following its determination to fire the chief of the army, a media report Wednesday said that the ongoing Indian elections could be a reason for the high drama.

“(Prime Minister) Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda feels that after the elections in India, there is a danger of (the new Indian government) intensifying efforts to topple the government in Nepal,” the Ghatana R Bichar weekly said.

“So before that happens, he wants to fortify and safeguard his own position.”

The weekly said that Prachanda would feel secure only after the state army was under the control of his former guerrilla party. Hence he was focussing on taming the army before a new government came to power in India.

The fear of a new dispensation in New Delhi, either headed by the ruling Indian Congress or nationalistic Bharatiya Janata Party, both of whom have an uneasy relationship with the Nepal Maoists, could well be a key factor in the Maoists’ decision to take the Nepal Army head-on even at the cost of being deserted by its own allies.

Gen Rookmangud Katawal, the army chief under fire, is due to retire in August. By trying to sack him just four months before and putting its government at risk indicates the Maoists are under some serious compulsion.

On Monday, after the army chief refused to resign voluntarily, the Maoist government asked him to furnish an explanation within 24 hours.

The 61-year-old was asked to explain why the army continued to recruit soldiers even after being ordered to stop, reinstated eight brigadier-generals the government had decided to retire and finally, why last month it walked out of the National Games after the Maoist army, the People’s Liberation Army, also announced its participation.

The general’s reply that he had acted in accordance with the law has infuriated the Maoist party, whose hardliners are urging Prachanda to sack him.

On Wednesday, Maoist rallies erupted nationwide, asking for action against the army chief and criticising President Ram Baran Yadav, who is also the titular head of the army. Yadav has advised Prachanda not to fire the general in a hurry.

With the cabinet scheduled to take a decision on Katawal’s dismissal Wednesday, there are indications of a crisis in the Maoist-led government.

The main ally of the coalition government, the communists, are sharply divided on the issue. While one faction, including party chief Jhalanath Khanal, would prefer to go with the Maoists, the other is opposing the move fiercely.

Khanal, currently on a week-long visit to China, is expected to cut short his trip and return as rivals have threatened to pull out of the government and split the party.

India is watching the developments closely. The Indian ambassador to Nepal Rakesh Sood has met Prachanda twice already to express New Delhi’s concern at the new crisis that could derail the peace process.

More Links…

New links added. I’ve also signed-up for Twitter. Trying to get a handle on a platform which has tremendous potential. During Phase I of the Indian election I was following the tweets of people living in insurgent affected areas. The info was posted far sooner than it found it’s way to other forms of media and (crucially) proved  to be accurate. I’m sold on the platform although the potential for banal and idiotic, ‘I’m taking a big crap’ updates is frightening.

Links…

Just started the blog today and have put some links up. As I aim to be as politically neutral as possible, I will link to any and all sites with usefull information, analysis or opinion on India’s forgotten war. Thought I’d start with two that hold… umm… disparate views.

India’s Forgotten War

I first developed in interest in India after spending a year in Delhi working as an intern for an international NGO.  The brashness of her emerging arriviste class, the expansive dynamism of her major cities, the juxtaposition of the sacred and the profane, the disarming squalor, and the ingenuity and resourcefulness of her people was both fascinating and disorienting.

Living in Delhi I was able to enjoy 21st century material and social comforts. Regular internet access, espresso’s and the day’s morning paper at the local cafe and the occasional drink at one of the city’s many fashionable nightclubs.

Whether this life represented a ‘real’ or ‘authentic’ India is largely irrelevant. It is an India which is a world away from the lives of most of her people. The work I did gave me a chance to escape from the myopia of expatraite Delhi life and spend time in forgotten villages among people who are among the poorest and most oppressed on the planet.

While I eventually left India, I was determined to return. A few years later a former course mate of mine suggested that I take up a job in Chennai at her organisation. I jumped at the chance and returned in 2007. It was then that I developed a keen interest with 21st century revolutionary Maoism and the so-called Naxalite insurgents.

Indian Maoism is fascinating to me because it is something which, like so much else in the country, the new India of imported cars, upscale cafes and stock options is inclined to ignore. India is ablaze and the urban elite only notice the faintest hints of a fire… a bomb here, an attack on the police there… nothing to be troubled about.  ‘Islamic’ terrorism, as the recent spate of horrific attacks shows, threatens the cities and wealthy. Naxalism predominately affects the country’s poor and marginalised. This is a mistake. The government and India’s elite ignore the Maoist insurgency at their own peril. It is a movement which has not only survived but has grown in strength precisely because India has failed to create a society and an economy which provides meaningful opportunities for many of her people. Until this changes, India’s Maoists will continue grow and may one day be able to disrupt the comfortable lives of the urban elites.

Naxal War is a modest attempt to fill in the glaring information gaps which exist on a conflict that has seen far too little interest both domestically and internationally. I will link to the latest academic studies, press reports, combatant releases and anything else relevant to India’s left-wing insurgency. I aim to be an unbiased source for anywone interested in India’s forgotten war. And I will rant.