Telangana- The New Chhattisgarh?

The central government has given into the demand for a separate Telangana state. Telangana, currently part of Andhra Pradesh state, has had an active independence movement since the late 1960s. Considering India’s proclivity for linguistic and cultural separation, the decision is not at all unexpected.

Far be it for me to disparage the aspirations of the people of the region,but I do think it’s important to note that Telangana is the traditional Naxalite heartland of Andhra, if not of the entire country. Their grip has weakened in recent years largely because of the state government’s effective deployment of the Greyhound para-police coupled with a policy of generous rehabilitation for surrendered rebels. Will this now change? I think that there is a very real risk of the new state becoming as insurgent affected as Chhattisgarh (which itself was created recently from a part of Madhya Pradesh). There are parallels. The new Telangana, like Chhattisgarh, will have fewer resources at its disposal than does Andhra. They will also need time to set-up an effective system of governance- time which they will not have in the Naxalite’s surge. Finally, what of the Greyhounds and the broader (and largely successful) Andhra counter-insurgency programme. Are we witnessing the beginning of India’s newest failed state?

UPDATE:

An interesting piece on how the Andhra police claimed the Maoists had infiltrated the recent protests for Telangana independence at Osmania University in Hyderabad. While the police may just be making this claim for political expediency, it wouldn’t surprise me if it were true.

Chief Minister Dead

Unconfirmed reports suggest that the body of YSR Reddy, Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh, and four others have been recovered from the crash site.

Andhra CM Missing… Update 5

A couple of things before I turn in for the night. As more information comes in, it seems increasingly likely that the helicopter crash was the result of a number of factors entirely unrelated to the Naxalites. A reader of mine who is a professional helicopter pilot suggested that it was likely that, given the inclement weather, the helicopter was flying low (possibly at high speeds) to avoid the clouds. Comparable weather and terrain contributed to a fatal crash of a similar helicopter in the neighbouring Bastar forests last year.

Furthermore, some reports claim that the CM’s chopper was not airworthy, although at this point claims such as this ought to be met with a great deal of skepticism.

Finally, it has been pointed out that even if the Naxals did possess anti-aircraft or other high-calibre weaponry, the density of the areas forest cover makes it nearly impossible to secure an adequate field of vision. And while it is possible to bring down a chopper with small arms fire, it’s unlikely especially if the target is moving at a high speed.

Live Updates- YSR Crash

A good site which has up-to-the-minute coverage of all relevant information on the crash of the CM of Andhra’s helicopter near Kurnool.

Andhra CM Missing… Update 4

Y S Rajasekhara Reddy’s helicopter has apparently been located by Indian authorities 70 km west of Kurnool. There are no reports on either the state of the helicopter or the passengers.

Andhra CM Missing… Update 3

The kind of terrain the security forces are facing (2005 photograph of Naxalite column in the Nallamalla Forest):

(Source: AP Mustafa Quraishi)

Andhra CM Missing… Update 2

A couple of things… while the NSA has stated that it is unlikely that the CM’s helicopter was brought down by the Naxalites because they lack the weaponry for such a strike, this runs contrary to some previous reports. According to the Indian Express, material was seized during a raid by Jharkhand police in August 2007 which indicated that:

the extremists have been training in the use of 12.7 mm anti-aircraft guns and have already acquired 80 mm mortars and rocket-propelled grenade rifles.

The Economic Times has also claimed that unnamed ‘reports’ suggest that the Naxalites have acquired a number of anti-aircraft guns. While the Times is… umm… a little bit vague on the details, it is a surprise that the NSA has so soon and so unequivocally stated that the Naxalites do not possess the capabilities to undertake a strike against a helicopter. It’s a bit premature.

Andhra CM Missing… Update

India’s National Security Advisor, MK Narayanan has all but ruled out that the disappearance of the helicopter carrying Andhra’s CM had anything to do with the Maoists. Narayanan:

Naxal strike seems extremely improbable. I would almost entirely rule it out. I do not think the Naxalites have the capability to bring down the helicopter.

At present, the massive search and rescue operation has been halted due to heavy rains that have rendered the dense forests around the last known location of the helicopter virtually impassible. Will the Naxalites be able to get there first? While the Nallamlla forests are no longer the Maoist strongholds that they were in the early half of the decade, armed guerrilla fighters still have a significant presence.

Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Missing in Naxalite Zone

This is significant enough for me to break my end-of-summer hiatus. The Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh’s helicopter disappeared this morning while flying over a Maoist controlled area. According to the BBC:

The helicopter carrying Mr Reddy and four others took off from Hyderabad’s Begumpet airport at 0845 IST (0315 GMT) bound for the village of Anupally in Chittoor district.

It was scheduled to land at 1045 but went missing at 0936 while flying over Kurnool district.

Sixteen hours after the crash, neither the helicopter nor the CM have been located. Whether the chopper was brought down by the Maoists or whether it had to land due to inclement weather is still unclear. If the Maoists are found to have been involved in anyway, it will likely trigger a significant police/military response. I’ll continue to monitor over the next few days.